Specialist
Manager at China-based mining company
Agenda
- Global and China’s lithium salt industry in 2022-25 – features, supply and demand outlook, inventory, pricing and market price trends
- Downstream players’ procurement cycles and price acceptance, plus lithium price increase impacts on downstream players and the whole industry chain costs
- Mainstream lithium mining enterprises’ resource distribution, production plan and progress, plus environmental impact assessment
- Mainstream lithium mining enterprise latest project update
Questions
1.
Could you please briefly introduce yourself and your career experience related to our topics today?
2.
As of today, lithium carbonate’s average price is RMB 487,000 per tonne, which is 4.7% lower compared with the highest price this year at RMB 511,000 per tonne. What do you think caused the price drop? How would you estimate lithium carbonate price’s next periodic changing trends? How are the quotations from large manufacturers and small manufacturers different and what do you think could be the future trends?
3.
Due to the marketing hype earlier, the authorities have been regulating the lithium price. How do you think the regulations have impacted the lithium price?
4.
You think that the lithium price reduction will not continue in the long term and will only drop to RMB 400,000 per tonne at most. How long do you think the lithium price would remain high?
5.
You have mentioned that the supply and demand relationship is the fundamental factor influencing product prices. Could you introduce the overall lithium supply and demand relationship in the mid-to-long term?
6.
When do you think the supply shortage will significantly shrink? 2025? When do you think there will be a balance between supply and demand?
7.
How do you think the price would respond to the supply shortage? You have just mentioned that the supply and demand balance may appear in 2024 or 2025. With the balance achieved, how do you think the lithium price will change?
8.
I have heard that some battery giants and cathode material suppliers joined together to boycott lithium carbonate priced over RMB 500,000 per tonne. Also, in order to drive lower prices, they now have cut the procurement volume and been digesting their inventory. Some traders have also started to sell at low prices. What are the inventory levels of battery manufacturers and cathode material suppliers at the current stage? How long can they maintain normal operations relying on their stock? Could you talk about the bargaining power of upstream suppliers and downstream clients in this sector? How has their bargaining power changed?
9.
Recently, Nio revealed that since March, its supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places had suspended production successively and haven’t resumed production yet. As a result, Nio suspended the production of vehicles. What about the impacts of the pandemic on the supply and demand of downstream EVs in 2022? What is your estimate of the sales volume of EVs in China in 2022? How large is the gap compared with previous expectations?
10.
The price of square LFP (lithium iron phosphate) battery has increased from RMB 0.525/Wh at the beginning of 2021 to RMB 0.99/Wh, with an increase of about 89%. The price of a square ternary battery has increased from RMB 0.66/Wh at the beginning of 2021 to RMB 1.09/Wh, with an increase of about 65%. The price increase of LFP battery is higher. What about the impacts on auto manufacturers’ selection of ternary or LFP batteries? What do you think of the subsequent changing trends of the proportion of ternary cathode materials?
11.
What about the increase of lithium production capacity of tier 1-2 companies in China and overseas in 2022-23?
12.
Regarding the commissioning, production line operations and production capacity ramp-up of Tianqi Lithium’s phase I lithium hydroxide project in Kwinana, it is said that the company will send samples to clients and continue to conduct targeted commissioning and make adjustments according to the problems that emerged during production and clients’ demand for products. What about the latest progress of this project?
13.
What is the root cause of this problem? Is it because Tianqi Lithium cannot dispatch more skilled teams to Kwinana or the local workers don’t follow the guidance? How to solve this problem?
14.
The phase II project in Kwinana is still in suspension at present. Is there any new progress?
15.
What is your estimate of the price, unit gross margin and output of Tianqi Lithium, Talison Lithium and SQM in Q1 2022? What about the changes compared with the figures in Q4 2021? What changes are likely to take place throughout 2022 and in the next 2-3 years?
16.
What about the approximate unit gross margin and output of Talison Lithium and SQM in Q1 2022?
17.
Could you estimate the output increase of Tianqi Lithium, Talison Lithium and SQM throughout 2022 and in the next 2-3 years?
18.
Could you estimate Ganfeng Lithium’s net profit per tonne and output in Q1 2022?
19.
What is the impact of Tianqi Lithium’s ore transportation problems on OEMs? When can it resume normal transportation?
20.
What are the costs of self-owned ore and purchased ore in the industry?
21.
What do you think of the later cost trends of purchased ore?
22.
You said earlier that the price of purchased ore has something to do with the price of lithium salt. What is the relationship between them?
23.
Lake Lithium, a subsidiary of QingHai Salt Lake Industry, has been able to achieve an annual production capacity of 30,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate relying on the resources of Qarhan Playa. The 30,000-tonne lithium carbonate project it cooperates with BYD is at the pilot-scale stage. When can the project release production capacity? What is your estimate of its effective production capacity this year?
24.
The project is still at the pilot-scale stage. How long does it take for the project to release production capacity?
25.
What do you think of the current technical competencies of major players in lithium extraction from salt-lake brines in China?
26.
What about the latest progress of Chengxin Lithium’s Murong Lithium Mine project located in Yajiang, Sichuan and its Zimbabwe-based project?
27.
It was said that Youngy’s 2.5 million tonnes of lithium concentrate mining project was undergoing environmental impact assessment. Why is the environmental impact assessment conducted for so long a time?
