Specialist
Associate professor at Yale School of Medicine
Agenda
- COVID-19 update, including potential for a second wave
- Expectations for autumn 2020
- Potential of combined COVID-19 and flu season
- Preparedness and timelines
- 3-5-month outlook
Questions
1.
What key components of COVID-19’s epidemiology should we focus on to understand the likely progression of the virus in the coming months?
2.
How strong is the assumption of herd immunity? There has been variable data in serology testing. Some studies show that while cell memory is lost, T cell memory is preserved in some patients, which may imply a lower-level immunity. There are also questions around how long antibodies remain effective. How does all this play into your expectations around spikes in areas that were first-wave hotspots vs non-hotspot zones?
3.
Could we therefore expect a reduced mortality rate or need for lockdown measures amid a second wave in areas such as New York and New Jersey? How do you think the flu season will feed into the severity of the crisis management of secondary spikes?
4.
Could we reasonably expect a lighter flu season due to the COVID-19 mitigation measures, having noted a lighter flu season in South America as a result of these precautions?
5.
Do you think we should focus on a vaccine as an all-in COVID-19 solution, on therapeutic advancements or on the concept of herd immunity? There has been a degree of resistance in biotech to all-in investments into a vaccine, and we can assume that the timeline to a mass-scale vaccine is at least mid-to EOY 2021.
6.
What do you think is a reasonable timeline for a vaccine coming online, particularly at mass scale? How will vaccine timelines feed into therapeutic developments?
7.
How would you characterise the ultimate effectiveness of the relatively severe lockdowns that have occurred globally? You forecast a fall 2021 timeline for widespread vaccine deployment within the US. How should we consider the long-term use of lockdowns until a vaccine is in place?
8.
Numbers around false negatives and false positives have been varied – anywhere around 20%. What are your thoughts on the accuracy of testing in crisis management and how those flaws will be addressed? How might the use of serology testing guide vaccine administration, at least in its limited use when first released?
9.
There are some growing concerns around the paediatric population. What are your thoughts on the potential rise in cases and the higher severity in that age group, especially as schools may start to resume? Can you discuss Kawasaki disease and some of the inflammatory responses in the paediatric population?
10.
Can you outline a best- and worst-case scenario for COVID-19 approaches over the next few months?
11.
What are your thoughts on the animal trial data from Inovio, Moderna, AstraZeneca and J&J? You discussed the Oxford vaccine development, but do you think any of these are notable outliers? Is it potentially an inappropriate comparison when considering gene-based vs traditional technologies?
