Specialist
Executive at British auto manufacturer
Agenda
- Near- and medium-term volume and growth assumptions for Aston Martin Lagonda (LON: AML), discussing drivers across models
- Pricing dynamics and ASP improvement
- EV strategy, discussing Mercedes (ETR: MBG) partnership and EV product roadmap competitiveness
- Profitability and cash dynamics, highlighting input cost inflation, margin expansion opportunities and CAPEX requirements
Questions
1.
What is your outlook for unit volume for Aston Martin Lagonda for full-year 2023? The company is guiding about 7,000 units. How realistic is that?
2.
What’s your 3-5-year volume growth outlook?
3.
How do you expect the 7,000 units to split by region?
4.
You mentioned units would stabilise around 7,000. I think Aston Martin’s target is to reach 10,000 models by 2025. What are the bottlenecks in getting to 10,000 models? What’s the pathway to get there?
5.
What model refreshes and new model launches are required to support growth?
6.
Based on the stabilised figure of 7,000 units that you quoted, how do you expect it to split by model? What would be the share of the SUV vs sports cars, etc?
7.
Let’s focus on the DBX, since most of the volume would be coming from there. You mentioned Aston Martin needs new derivatives in there to support the 4,000 SUV number, if I understood correctly. What’s missing in terms of derivatives here? Is it more on the higher end?
8.
How competitive do you think is the DBX with some of the recent derivatives vs the likes of the Lamborghini Urus or Bentley Bentayga?
9.
You mentioned that, from a technical perspective, Aston Martin lags the competition. What exactly is lagging? What’s missing from the company’s vehicles from a technical and quality perspective?
10.
Ferrari is probably seen as the pinnacle of a performance sports car. How big of a threat is the Ferrari Purosangue SUV? Do you think it would eat into the customer base and the volume of the DBX?
11.
Aston Martin is launching the new DB12 this autumn. How important do you think this model is in driving the volume we spoke about?
12.
You painted a picture of the sports cars being important to Aston Martin’s volumes. However, the company recently halted the development of a mainstream mid-engine supercar sports car that would compete with the Ferrari 296 GTB and McLaren’s Artura. How do you assess that decision? Does Aston Martin need a 296/Artura competitor?
13.
How much headroom is there is in ASPs in 2023 for Aston Martin? What’s a realistic increase the company can achieve without sacrificing any volume?
14.
Do you think Aston Martin is good at controlling stock?
15.
What can Aston Martin do to improve the mix within and across models?
16.
What are your expectations for models being electrified within the portfolio? What’s the timeline for what comes first and what’s next?
17.
Do you think Aston Martin can remain competitive in an EV world?
18.
What do you view as the endgame for Mercedes and its investment in Aston Martin?
19.
Aston Martin is guiding 20% EBITDA margin for 2023. How realistic is this, particularly given that Q1 2023 came in at around 10%?
20.
Aston Martin is guiding 25% EBITDA for the medium term. Do you think that’s a realistic target? You mentioned for 20% EBITDA the company will need to put up prices by about 10%. What are the requirements to get to the medium-term 25% EBITDA, perhaps since it has a little bit more time to get there?
21.
What do you think are the CAPEX requirements for Aston Martin for 2023? Do you expect them to rise in the future or to start coming down?
22.
Aston Martin’s move to halt the development of mid-engine sports cars was to focus on limited-run halo models such as the Valkyrie and the Valhalla. What’s your outlook for volumes within specials? How important are they to the company’s profitability?
23.
Is there anything else that you think is important to discuss when it comes to Aston Martin?
