Former divisional leader at Sainsbury's Supermarkets Ltd (J Sainsbury's plc)
- Demand trends, shifts in consumer habits and coronavirus impacts
- Pricing and volume trends, including volatility planning and inflationary pressures
- Competitive landscape and exposure to market dynamics, highlighting Cranswick’s move into poultry category
- Impact of potential consolidation and recent retailer acquisitions on meat and poultry processors
How have coronavirus and lockdowns impacted UK meat and poultry demand?
What do you think is driving sustained high meat and poultry demand, given many thought it would have retreated by now?
Was the growth and volume uplift broad-based across the sector, or did any categories within meat and poultry blossom?
You mentioned red meat demand recovered during the pandemic after declining for the past five years. Do you expect this trend to continue for the next 6-12 months?
There’s been big shift in France towards organic produce. Has this been happening in the UK? Are UK consumers starting to prefer organic in meat and poultry?
Online shopping exploded during coronavirus. Has this changed customers’ habits within meat and poultry, perhaps around buying different pack sizes?
You mentioned the average pack size customers buy increased during the pandemic. How much has it increased by?
There’s been broad inflationary pressure across multiple industries, including meat and poultry. What might this cost inflation mean for gross and operating margins for retailers and manufacturing or processing players over the next 6-12 months?
You suggested inflationary pressure is being driven by a number of factors, including labour fees and transport. Which inflation drivers might be longer-term? Alternatively, could this play out for at least the next 6-12 months?
Are there any segments or product categories within meat and poultry that are likely to be impacted more by inflationary pressures than others? Boparan claims to be suffering from the labour shortages. Do you think all categories are experiencing this? Alternatively, do you think poultry is just more labour intense?
Are you expecting shortages across categories leading up to the Christmas period?
How significant is the inflationary cost pressure coming from meat manufacturers and processors to the retailers? What percentage cost increase are they passing on?
How do the cost pressures and demand trends we have discussed inform your 12-month growth outlook for the sector? Do you expect strong growth?
Which sub-category do you expect to outperform the others? Alternatively, do you think it will be broad based?
What are the key volume and pricing metrics across protein types?
How does global pork, meat and chicken demand impact the UK? There’s sometimes a trickle effect from what happens in China. What should we be cautious of?
What’s happening between the UK and the US regarding poultry? There was an import debate happening last year. Is this still a risk to the UK poultry market?
To what extent do you think the rise of plant-based meats is impacting the meat and poultry sector? Could this become a big trend and a threat to normal meat and poultry?
Could you outline the UK meat and poultry competitive landscape, highlighting the key manufacturers and processors across protein types and their relative size?
You mentioned Cranswick moving into poultry, which is interesting given its dominance in pork. What do you think sparked the move to poultry and why? Is it quite complementary in terms of processing and equipment and outlay?
How do the quality and pricing of Moy Park, 2 Sisters, Pilgrim and Cranswick compare in the poultry category? Who leads in quality of protein vs retailer price?
You mentioned Moy Park has a good manufacturing site, but has strong supply if it needs it. Cranswick has new sites which will drive efficiencies. Who might lose market share from Cranswick powering into the market? Where do you think the company might take from?
Do you expect any consolidation within the poultry industry over the next five years across Moy Park, 2 Sisters, Pilgrim and Cranswick?
How does Cranswick compare to competitors in the pork category? It has good market share, but is it really a market leader? Do you expect continued dominance in the pork industry for Cranswick?
Growth for these players seems to come from improving relationships or contracts with retailers. How does that dynamic work? How can processors such as Cranswick, 2 Sisters and Moy Park drive growth and improve retailer relationships?
Do you think any players are due any big CAPEX or capital reworks to either improve or refurbish current manufacturing sites?
There’s been a lot of change in ownership and new acquisition targets such as Morrisons. Asda was acquired in October 2020. Do these retailer acquisitions change their relationships with processors? What does it mean for the processors and manufacturers?
Do you think any processors could be potential acquisition targets, such as maybe taking Cranswick private or offloading 2 Sisters from Boparan and splitting it up into its own equity or entity?
Are there any other risks that we should monitor that might change this landscape for processors?
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