Specialist
Former C-level executive at Away Resorts Ltd
Agenda
- UK 2021-22 bookings environment for caravan and lodge sales as well as holidaymakers
- Pricing dynamics across caravan and lodge sales and for holidaymakers
- On-park spend outlook given coronavirus
- Owner income unit economics and growth outlook
Questions
1.
Could you pull 2-3 key trends across the UK leisure and holiday park industry during the pandemic? What surprised you the most and what should investors be monitoring?
2.
You mentioned there is demand for rental. Would you say bookings and sales have almost exceeded demand or expectations?
3.
Do you think demand in 2021 is exceeding 2019 demand levels prior to the pandemic?
4.
Do you expect some tailwinds on the current peak demand to go through to 2022-23? As you mentioned, do you expect more people to become more sticky and opening to further holidays in caravan parks in the UK?
5.
Do you think a lot of operators might have been caught out by the increased demand, and may not have put enough investment in 2020, given that they couldn’t or were unsure of the outlook?
6.
When you say acquisitions, is this almost pointing to a wider industry consolidation trend?
7.
What do you think will happen with consolidation and, as you mentioned, more PE funds coming into the industry? Is that likely to change the industry dynamics at all?
8.
What drives the most revenue, most margin and how would operators approach these different revenue streams?
9.
Pricing has been evolving. Are there quite high price increases at the moment, given that demand is outstripping supply? Do you expect prices to increase through to 2022?
10.
How does seasonality impact bookings and rates through the year?
11.
Borders have been closed and the UK public is really driving growth in the UK holiday market. Is this market generally impacted by international visitors at all? Is that a big part of the customer base for holiday parks generally?
12.
With the massive demand for UK holidays in 2021, is there any loss or offset between bookings in 2020 that might have got cancelled or deferred to this year? Do you think that might have played out, or did we get a full season in last year?
13.
Are you already receiving some bookings for 2022?
14.
Do you think there might be any capacity constraints in the parks to this reopening? I know since 19 July 2021, all restrictions have or should be gone, but quite a few F&B outlets are keeping the six-person rule, the masks and all. Do you think this will be happening in the UK holiday parks?
15.
You mentioned that spend in park and secondary spend is likely to be below pre-pandemic levels, but do you think that’s offset by big park fees and booking fees?
16.
Could you give an overview of the competitive landscape, touching on who the key players are, how they differ by operation and how we should assess market share by sizing?
17.
What are the real advantages that good data processors and tech for these companies?
18.
What is a good target range of repeat customers that an operator would seek?
19.
Is there any one of these parks that you think is better at improving this ROI vs any other operators?
20.
You mentioned that Parkdean and Haven are slightly more sophisticated with Park Holidays slightly below. How do the players compete in pricing or rate?
21.
Could you estimate the break-even capacity levels for any of these major groups and where they really need to operate to get to that break-even level?
22.
Are there any substantial cost buckets that might be altered in the next few months?
23.
Do you think cost increases will be material enough to really change the cost profile of the operator?
24.
Do you think there are any players in this period of high demand that would have outperformed the others, given that they might have had larger hire fleets or excess capacity?
25.
Do you think any operators will try to build out new sites or improve and increase their fleet?
26.
You mentioned the buy and expand plan. What are the ROIs and time periods there for the operators?
27.
What trends do you expect to really drive this market past 2022 and for the next five years? Do you think it will be more and premiumisation?
28.
Does any one player stand out that might be able to capitalise on all these themes and trends more so than the rest of the market?
29.
Are there any players that pose as obvious acquisition targets by another holiday park or PE firm? I know the PE firm one might be a bit difficult, given that there seems no size too big or no deal too wrong for a PE firm.
30.
Is there anything that’s commonly overlooked by investors in the UK holiday parks industry?
31.
If a global recession filters into the UK, especially with furlough ending, do you expect any headwinds or do you think the demand is so strong that it might push the industry through that challenging environment?
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