Specialist
Former senior executive at Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX)
Agenda
- Business history, overview and outlook for SpaceX
- SpaceX's competitive advantages and areas of weakness compared to other New Space players – technology, business model and attrition risks
- Cost evolution, including savings transfer to customers, launch costs and ten-year outlook
- Outlook for Starship and Starlink, discussing roadblocks and potential for Starlink partnerships beyond T-Mobile (LON: 0R2L)
- H2 2022 and 2023 outlook, highlighting importance of stage two reusability and relations with US government agencies
Questions
1.
You were at SpaceX from its earlier days. Could you talk about the company’s evolution over the last decade? What have been the most meaningful developments?
2.
Which do you view as SpaceX’s most formidable competitors today? Where do their respective strengths and weaknesses lie? I believe Boeing has ambitions to get to Mars before SpaceX, but would it be considered a formidable competitor? Would it be Blue Origin?
3.
SpaceX is often praised as a leader, years ahead of some peers. What drives the company’s competitive advantage?
4.
What are the remaining challenges for SpaceX's Starlink? It seems the company is doing well with its launch cadence and it even got an extra satellite into the Falcon 9 for the last launch. On the other hand, I know it is still pending approval for the full constellation size.
5.
What proactive measures is SpaceX taking to deal with debris, Kessler syndrome and deorbiting? Why do you feel the Kessler syndrome or space debris issues are overblown?
6.
What are your thoughts on Starlink’s partnership with T-Mobile? What might outsiders underappreciate about it? Why is now the time to make that deal?
7.
Why do you think the direct-to-mobile TAM is overstated? Additionally, I know Elon Musk had tweeted about working with Apple earlier in September. What would that unlock for the firm?
8.
How will Starlink technologically enable connections with T-Mobile? Will it be via new antennae or new satellite payloads? My understanding is that Starlink’s current antenna is not capable of the MSS [mobile satellite service] spectrum and can only offer Ku band frequencies for its user terminals. How will the company technologically enable those connections?
9.
How low can the price of Starlink be driven? What are the remaining hurdles impeding cost improvement?
10.
Would SpaceX pass cost improvements through to customers if there is room to make them? Should we expect to see terminals come down from USD 600 as the company makes savings? Is it likely to keep pricing where it sits today and take the margin to recoup large initial investment?
11.
What are the remaining unknown unknowns or known unknowns you would be asking Elon Musk about Starlink if you had the opportunity?
12.
How do you assess the development of the Starship? Where has it surpassed expectations and where has it been more challenging?
13.
Can you discuss SpaceX’s propulsion capabilities? What has delayed the Starship recently?
14.
What is needed from the labour pool to make the Starship operational? You highlighted that it is the most complex engine in an aircraft or rocket ever. What impact will the recent departure of a number of propulsion engineers on that team have on the company at this critical time?
15.
How does SpaceX deal with the issue of knowledge leaving the company with its staff? A lot of the newer space companies have many former SpaceX employees. How does it defend its IP? Is there any risk that Dragon engineers leave and are immediately competing?
16.
Could you discuss the successes and struggles SpaceX has had with integrating stage two reusability? What else is needed at this point to achieve second stage reusability?
17.
What timeline estimate is realistic for stage two reusability?
18.
How impactful will it be on a company-wide level if SpaceX does not achieve second-stage reusability? Would it make everything else, including Starlink, uneconomical?
19.
What are the upper limits to reusability and second-stage reusability? Are there any rules of thumb that say 100 launches would be the maximum?
20.
Are there any key-person risks when it comes to reusability? Are there any engineers we should know about who are leading the charge when it comes to SpaceX’s reusability efforts?
21.
How do you expect launch costs to evolve over the next 5-10 years? Is less than USD 1,000 per kilogram by 2025 realistic?
22.
What indicators will you be looking for over the next decade that could change your view that even USD 300 launch costs are possible or, alternatively, that the USD 2,500 estimate is more likely?
23.
How has SpaceX historically passed on launch cost savings to clients? Should we expect similar behaviour with the Starship as with Falcon? Why or why not, if Starship is to succeed as planned?
24.
Is it likely for SpaceX to spin out Starlink or is it fundamental to its operations? What would a spin-off company look like?
25.
How do you perceive SpaceX’s relationship with the US government? There’s been an issue with spectrum rights lately and I believe SpaceX was suing the government after losing some contract rewards.
26.
What is your broad outlook for SpaceX? Where should we be focused?
27.
Where do you feel the space economy is often overstated, as you mentioned earlier with direct-to-mobile? There are TAMs being projected by firms, some call it a USD 1tn market by 2040. Conversely, where might things be understated?
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