Specialist
Former director at Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc
Agenda
- Volume and pricing dynamics, highlighting unit growth outlook by model and ASP trends
- Porsche’s (ETR: VOW3) EV strategy – BEV (battery EV) and PHEV (plug-in hybrid EV) uptake expectations and PPE (Premium Platform Electric) platform’s competitiveness
- Profitability dynamics across models
- Benefits and challenges associated with potential IPO for Porsche and Volkswagen
Questions
1.
Porsche achieved 300,000 units for the first time in 2021. What is driving this volume growth rate?
2.
Porsche’s volume growth is in the context of other OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] reporting volume drops in light of the semiconductor shortage. Why has the company been successful in working around this and continuing to drive volume growth?
3.
What’s your outlook for volume growth at Porsche in 2022-25?
4.
What are the limitations to organic growth within Porsche’s existing models?
5.
You mentioned one of the key potential volume drivers being a new segment. What are the new segment opportunities for Porsche? Which do you think is the biggest?
6.
Are there any missing volume models from Porsche’s mix that could improve unit sales?
7.
You mentioned a potential volume drop-off in the mid-term and then a strengthening of that in the longer term. How do you expect the Russia-Ukraine conflict to impact volumes in 2022 specifically?
8.
The wire harness industry seems to be the particular threat with production in Ukraine. How easy is it to source alternative supplies?
9.
How material could the suspension of production in Leipzig be to Porsche’s volumes?
10.
Is it possible for the deficit in Leipzig to be picked up by alternative production sites or ramping up production in any of the other sites?
11.
What 2-3 key reasons would drive a volume drop at Porsche in 2023?
12.
What is the typical facelift cadence at Porsche? How does the OEM approach this?
13.
Will we see a normalisation of that facelift cadence or new model cadence from 2024?
14.
You suggested volumes just shy of 300,000 in 2022, 280,000 in 2023 and then back up to 300,000 in 2024 onwards. How do you expect this to be split by region?
15.
Why has Porsche been so successful in APAC, particularly China?
16.
Given that volume growth isn’t expected to see large jumps over the next five years or so, a key part of the discussion is around pricing and how this could shift to drive revenue growth for Porsche. What’s your outlook for ASP at the company level and by model?
17.
What incremental increase could we expect in ASPs?
18.
How much pricing power does Porsche have?
19.
Why couldn’t Porsche increase prices to a similar magnitude to Ferrari?
20.
How much scope is there to premiumise the customer base at Porsche?
21.
We’re hearing about cost inflation through the supply chain across components and raw materials. How confident are you in Porsche’s ability to pass on 100% of these costs to the customer?
22.
Do you have a view on how material cost inflation could be?
23.
I think Porsche achieved 16.5% margins in 2021. How sustainable are these levels?
24.
How much pricing power is there with BEVs [battery EVs]? Could we see a shift in the pricing dynamics as Porsche pursues its BEV strategy?
25.
How competitive is the all-electric Taycan in the market today?
26.
How important is range, given you mentioned the Taycan having a lower range than the Mercedes EQS?
27.
What options are there to increase the Taycan’s battery size but maintain weight?
28.
What can we expect in terms of the electrification of additional Porsche models? You’ve spoken about this to a certain extent, but could you summarise the timeline you’re expecting across models?
29.
As you said, there's customer reluctance around BEV versions of two-door models such as the 911, but there are challenges around making the vehicle weight and driving performance work for PHEV [plug-in hybrid EV] models. What options are there to balance these two factors?
30.
It’s interesting that you speak about car enthusiasts wanting the quality of the ICE [internal combustion engine] 911 models. To what extent is there an opportunity for Porsche to attract new customers through its launch of BEVs, and in particular, a 911 BEV?
31.
Do you think younger customers prefer battery electric sports vehicles above ICE models?
32.
What are your estimates for hybrid and battery electric penetration in 2022-25?
33.
How technically competitive is the PPE [Premium Platform Electric] platform that Porsche is adopting compared to Tesla’s?
34.
What’s stopping the other OEMs increasing to 800V platforms from 400V?
35.
What is the optimal range in charge time for the Porsche customer?
36.
What are your thoughts on a potential Porsche IPO? Obviously, this has been an ongoing process with many rumours around it. Why are we seeing this approach now and what are the key benefits and drawbacks to it?
37.
What threat does purchasing power pose to margins if Porsche were outside of Volkswagen?
38.
What do you consider to be the top 2-3 spin-off challenges for Porsche?
39.
Volkswagen seems to have resisted a Porsche IPO historically. What could Volkswagen do with the proceeds of an IPO that it can’t already do, just given it generates roughly EUR 15bn in free cash flow?
