Specialist
Former director at Graphic Packaging International Corp
Agenda
- Key trends for H2 2020 – macro-environment impacts
- Competitive landscape and key differentiators
- Demand drivers – pulp and paperboard supply
- 12-18-month outlook
Questions
1.
Could you outline the current operating environment for paper demand and paper packaging? What have you observed over this past six months with the volatility and disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic?
2.
You mentioned that consumer packaging also includes restaurants and QSRs, could you elaborate on that?
3.
Based on the different end markets or categories that you outlined – paper, office paper, print paper, tissues, consumer packaging, corrugated – can you describe the different players that will be impacted? Where do each of the major players have the most exposure, and can you pick out winners and losers due to the recent volatility?
4.
You said that 50% of corrugated production comes from virgin fibre in the US, and the number for the rest of the world tends to be much lower. Is that correct?
5.
Has China begun taking on more virgin pulp for their own production now that it is no longer taking as much of the US’s recycled paper materials including cardboard. Did pulp demand increase?
6.
Where is recycled paper and recycled packaging pricing currently? You mentioned that print paper and tissue pricing are both down. Has recycled paper and recycled packaging pricing skyrocketed due to less recyclable waste being generated? Is that something that you’ve observed? Are there any dynamics relating to recycled vs virgin packaging production during the pandemic over the past six months?
7.
It seems like e-commerce volumes have spiked, which I know is only one segment of the corrugated market, but you said you feel that demand is either flat or down in corrugated. Have I understood correctly?
8.
It seems like e-commerce would be the growth engine for corrugated packaging. With that being a higher- demand grade as we’re thinking about paper packaging overall, has supply been outpacing demand due to mills converting to higher-demand grades? Do you feel like longer-term demand will outpace supply?
9.
You mentioned one potential consolidation scenario with PCA potentially seeking to acquire Domtar. Can you expand on that? What do you think is the overall likelihood, and what sort of synergies might you expect? How formidable of a player would the combined companies be?
10.
Do you think the pandemic and recent volatility could act as a catalyst for further consolidation in this sector? Are there any distressed players out there or potential targets that you think make sense?
11.
It’s my understanding there’s been a restructuring on how tissues are made, transitioning from virgin pulp to imported hardwood pulp. Is this a theme that you’re familiar with?
12.
Do you feel that we need to be discussing any of the topics that we’ve already covered in more depth, or do you think we may have left anything out that you feel is relevant?
13.
You’ve mentioned some players that have exposure to the lower-demand grades. Is there anybody that you’re particularly bullish on that you feel has positioned themselves well in mix and capacity?
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