Specialist
Former corporate VP at Intel Corp
Agenda
- Intel Corp’s (NASDAQ: INTC) Intel Foundry Services (IFS) and IDM (integrated device manufacturing) 2.0 capacity update
- Geopolitical dynamics, acquisition strategy and key product launches
- Share dynamics and key competitive pressures, particularly in the data centre
- Mid-to-long-term outlook – node transition roadmap and manufacturing strategy including EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography) adoption
- 3-5-year outlook for Intel Corp and key targets
Questions
1.
What major trends are you following across Intel’s market?
2.
What are the demand implications for Intel’s microprocessors as we exit the pandemic? What spend patterns do you expect in the data centre vs the client side? When might the demand tailwinds subside?
3.
What growth rates might the tailwinds support in data centre and the client demand side? Do you expect a digestion period for hyperscalers over the next few months or a deceleration in PC client demand based on tailwinds ceasing around education and a return to school? How should we quantify longer-term growth?
4.
How would you characterise competitive dynamics between Intel and AMD in the data centre and then the client side? How might market share dynamics evolve for Intel vs AMD with an x86 CPU?
5.
What market share position might Intel and AMD occupy in the data centre at EOY 2022? How quickly has AMD been picking up market share?
6.
You noted Sapphire Rapids and the need to shore up Intel’s offering. How successfully can Intel decelerate the rate of market share loss vs AMD? Can Intel buttress its portfolio in the data centre, and if so, how?
7.
Does a mid-to-low 70% share for Intel in Q4 2022 include a strong reception of Sapphire Rapids?
8.
Intel’s Q2 2021 earnings call discussed a stabilisation in ASPs for data centre CPU. How aggressive has Intel has been on pricing here and do you agree with expectations for a more stable ASP environment?
9.
How price-aggressive might Intel be to preserve market share? What pricing concessions or strategy could Intel pursue, assuming the supply-demand imbalance does somewhat rectify over the next few quarters?
10.
You referenced ARM becoming a more viable competitor to x86 architectures. We’ve heard the ability to stack ARM cores has contributed greatly to its stature in the data centre. How do you think Intel considers the risk of ARM within the data centre, and especially some of the proprietary chip design work being done using ARM architecture at major hyperscale customers such as Amazon?
11.
When do you expect the chip shortage to taper off? When do you expect a more normal supply-demand environment, factoring in the capacity that will come online over the next 1-2 years?
12.
Could you break down your reaction to the IDM 2.0 and Intel’s entrance into the foundry? What does the company need to do to be successful?
13.
How should we frame the time and resources necessary to set up the support ecosystem required for the foundry segment to be fully formed and ready for customers? How developed is that for Intel today?
14.
How do you expect Intel to offer the x86 designs? Could it offer a licensing-based model, a more custom designed services model more where the customer tells Intel what they want and Intel has more involvement in the design work? How do you think Intel evaluates cracking open its x86 designs and what that would mean for the customer?
15.
You referenced news flow around Intel’s CEO, Pat Gelsinger, going to Europe to drum up customers. Who might be the major customers for Intel’s Foundry Services business over the next few years, and how might that customer composition evolve?
16.
What is likely to win at bigger players such as Broadcom or Qualcomm? To what extent might Intel have to offer favourable terms to suppliers over the next year just to convince them to shift manufacturing from TSMC or other foundry suppliers?
17.
What nodes do you think Intel will bring online at some of the foundries? You referenced the 22-nanometre being available. What nodes might Intel have available as it goes deeper into EUV [extreme ultraviolet lithography] and pursues the next generations and layers of process technology? What is the IFS [Intel Foundry Services] division’s strategy and how quickly should we expect certain nodes to be available?
18.
What nodes do you think Intel can manufacture within its foundries over the medium-to-long term? Do you think it will be very heavily weighted towards the 18-angstrom?
19.
Intel announced several big spending programmes to build out additional capacity. How might the fab investment break down by the IFS segment vs capacity for internally manufactured Intel chips, and when do you expect that spending to begin?
20.
Do you think spending on the greenfield facilities has already begun? How might the USD 20bn CAPEX be allocated over time, and how might that be reflected in Intel’s numbers?
21.
What wafer starts per day or wafers per month do you think Intel’s facilities will eventually achieve and over what time frame?
22.
What role do you expect federal and state incentives to play in Intel standing up the fabs? To what extent is this a factor to track around footing the bill for some of these build-outs?
23.
A few months ago, there was news flow around Intel and GlobalFoundries. Can you discuss Intel building part of its foundry portfolio through M&A more generally? I think GlobalFoundries filed for an IPO. Do you think there’s still a chance Intel may acquire GlobalFoundries? Would Intel be interested in acquiring foundry players that exist today, such as some of the smaller ones, to build out some of the IP infrastructure or the IP that it needs, or otherwise just helping to stand up that business more quickly?
24.
What are your expectations for the ramp in revenue attributable to the IFS segment for Intel over time? What proportion of the overall total do you expect that segment to contribute over the next few years? How quickly can that business be ramped?
25.
Can you discuss some of the spending associated with Intel’s efforts to regain the process node lead or at least draw level again with TSMC from a process node perspective? How are you evaluating Intel’s execution to date in driving down to some of the lower nodes to those five- and three-nanometre-type nodes? What’s your assessment of the progress there?
26.
Can you discuss Intel’s ability to get EUV right? From your dealings with the manufacturing team, what is the timeline for getting that right and what are your expectations regarding Intel’s use of EUV?
27.
What is your 3-5-year outlook for Intel? What do you think the company needs to get right?
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