Specialist
Former manager at Tesla Inc
Agenda
- Commercial update highlighting technological development of EV batteries
- JVs between battery manufacturers and auto OEMs – LG Chem (KRX: 051910) and General Motors (NYSE: GM)
- Legacy lithium-ion batteries vs solid-state, lithium-sulphur and lithium-metal
- Cost reduction opportunities across battery life cycle 5. Innovation and improvements in 2020 and beyond
Questions
1.
Can we start with a high-level overview of the EV battery sector? What key themes and trends do you think we should all be monitoring?
2.
Tesla is reportedly deciding whether to buy cobalt directly from Glencore for its factory in Shanghai. What are your thoughts around these reported discussions? Do you think this would be a sensible move?
3.
Do you think these reported discussions potentially show that Tesla is considering reconfiguring its supply chain around cobalt?
4.
The general consensus is that Tesla has held a technological battery lead over all the other OEMs for the last couple of years. How would you characterise that lead today – if you believe it has one – and how much longer do you expect it to persist?
5.
Can you elaborate on the forecasts around a drastic reduction in per-unit cost over the next couple of years, due to economies of scale? With the cost structure of the batteries specifically, what do you think are the key steps for the NCA [nickel-cobalt-aluminium] cylindrical cells after the 21700 form factor?
6.
What cost do you think can be achieved per kilowatt-hour for the existing lithium-ion technology in 2020- 21?
7.
My understanding is that Tesla has the leading industry cost structure using the cylindrical form factors you mentioned. Do you think Tesla can leverage that in China, where they might use prismatic form factors?
8.
To what extent would you say lithium and cobalt spot prices influence EV battery cost curves?
9.
Are there any supply concerns around this nickel and lithium, and to what extent do you think these efforts around recycling battery packs can be helpful?
10.
In the context of our chemistry discussion, what would you forecast as the major milestones or hurdles that will speed up or slow down the transition to higher nickel content batteries?
11.
What gains do you think we can expect in processing cost reduction from economies of scale? What would you estimate to be the biggest drop in battery price that could be achieved due to having optimal scale?
12.
How is the battery box housed in Tesla vehicles, and what material goes into the battery boxes? I believe the enclosure is aluminium. Do you expect that to change?
13.
My understanding is that there are procurement concerns if OEMs do not have their supply chains for batteries figured out. Do you agree or disagree with this assessment? How much of a concern do you think this is for OEMs who – unlike Tesla – are not vertically integrated?
14.
Can you outline the general advantages and disadvantages of prismatic vs cylindrical battery cells?
15.
Tesla started moving towards the 2170 a few years ago. What do you think of this move and, more generally, how we should be interpreting the effect of a larger cell from a cost per kilowatt-hour perspective?
16.
Near-term, which North American OEMs would you say are most committed to building out the EVs within their vehicle portfolios, besides Tesla? Are there any that you think are notably ahead of or behind the curve?
17.
What would you say are the tangible cost differences between emerging technologies in lithium and lithium-ion? What aspects of these new technologies might make batteries cheaper in the near-to-medium- term, across factors such as raw materials, energy density, etc?
18.
How did you assess Tesla’s purchase of Maxwell Technologies in 2019? What do you think can be introduced to Tesla’s vehicle line-up from the acquisition?
19.
We have discussed Rivian several times throughout the Interview. What makes the company interesting, from your perspective? What is it doing differently that could push someone such as Amazon or some of the big OEMs to show some interest in having a relationship?
20.
What advantages in driving performance and efficiency can Tesla’s BMS [Battery Management Systems] feasibly realise if the cells are a commodity?
21.
On the supply chain side of things, is nickel the limiting factor for the growth of EVs more generally? How many more EVs do you think the mass market could theoretically support, given today’s capacity? Is this something in the range of 10 million to 15 million units?
22.
What are your thoughts on the eLNO cathode formula that Johnson Matthey is testing? What are the pros and cons of this vs the existing Umicore and BASF products?
23.
What are the important chemistry transitions in the anodes, across aspects such as the natural vs artificial mix and the amount of silicon injected?
24.
What is the quality difference in the cathode chemical supply from Europe vs in Asia?
25.
What would you highlight as the major differences between the Tesla-Panasonic technology and what the other OEMs are experimenting with? Is Tesla’s longer average range just a product of additional cells, or is there some other fundamental difference in the technology?
26.
What is your overall assessment of swappable battery technology? Automakers in China seem to have a pretty strong belief in the concept.
27.
What are the barriers to reach the NCM 811, and who do you think might win that race?
28.
Following this sector over recent years, there seem to have been numerous instances in which the OEMs claim a technology breakthrough that does not live up to the hype. Can you help us understand why this might be the case?
29.
What do you think Panasonic brings to the table in its relationship with Tesla? How would you grade the company’s technology relative to LG’s?
30.
Can you elaborate on the upstream battery-grade feedback stock and sourcing? My impression is that there are some fundamentally different methods of extracting and purifying lithium, nickel and cobalt that can open access to new resources and lower cost.
31.
A theory I have heard around consumer purchasing of EVs is that there are a lot of diminishing returns regarding battery range anxiety. At what range do you think further improvements start to matter less?
32.
How do you think Elon Musk views battery technology for Tesla? Do you think he recognises the importance of battery technology improvements over the next couple of years?
33.
Can we conclude by outlining where you expect battery technologies to be in five years, alongside any other closing comments you have today?
