Specialist
Former Engineer at The Boeing Co
Agenda
- 737 Max failure – scenarios and timelines for different fixes
- Demand dynamics and cancellation factors
- Substitute platforms and strategic positioning of Airbus products
- Potential production line shut down scenario
Questions
1.
What is your high-level view on recent events and the future of the 737 Max? What main points of uncertainty do you think are worth considering?
2.
Let’s evaluate the assumption that the MCAS system is at fault in the Ethiopian crash as well. What is your view of the process and timeline of the 737 Max being brought into operation? What would have to occur and how uncertain would you say that timeline is?
3.
What new realisations do you think could be made about how the MCAS system works and what might have caused the accidents?
4.
Boeing issued the bulletin saying it had made a procedural fix, though it seems not to be functional . Are there liability issues for Boeing because of this?
5.
Could you explain what the fix for the single sensor issue is and what the timeline is for installing the new software to rely on more than one sensor?
6.
Do you think customers would be comfortable with a fix that relies on computational inferences, rather than the physical third sensor?
7.
What do you think the cost implications for Boeing would be if the necessary solution was a software fix vs a more tangible hardware fix?
8.
Could you explain the certification process and how the 737 Max got through the FAA [Federal Aviation Administration] procedures with the MCAS as we see it?
9.
What do you think are the potential implications for the certification process of possible fixes? Could this process cause significant delays once Boeing does propose its software fix?
10.
How much longer would it take if Boeing has to put its solution through multiple regulators? Is the FAA notably quicker?
11.
Do you think there is any risk that different regulators come to different conclusions on the potential fix, and if so, what would the implications be for Boeing?
12.
Assuming a simple software fix that is approved by regulators and that the customer base is comfortable with, how long do you think it would take to roll out?
13.
Do you foresee any scenario where Boeing would be willing or forced to pay for the training of pilots if the certification were revoked?
14.
Assuming the common licence is not revoked, how do you think Boeing’s order book might evolve, given that Garuda Indonesia tried to cancel its order recently?
15.
How much do you think a grounding could accelerate the shrinking of the backlog? What would the difference in backlog look like before and after these occurrences?
16.
In a scenario where the aircraft is grounded for about two quarters, you said some airlines might look to delay, but do you think they would look to reduce the number of aircraft they would accept delivery of?
17.
How do you think Boeing might view production rates for the 737 Max? How would it consider a six-month delay and no reduction in number of aircraft delivered, vs a year-long delay and a 10-30% reduction?
18.
What would you say are the supply chain implications of any potential decrease in production rate at Boeing?
19.
We have covered a scenario analysis under the assumption that this is a MCAS [Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System] fault. What would be the implications if the fault is in the fundamental design of the 737 Max, perhaps with Boeing using a shortcut version of the old 737 body type which is unstable due to the weight of the new LEAP [Leading Edge Aviation Propulsion] engine?
20.
What do you think this situation might mean for new aircraft development, given the potential pressure on certification and the potential pushback on the technological dependence of new aircraft? What do you expect is the future of the NMA [New Mid-size Airplane] or any other later iterations?
21.
What is your outlook for the 737 Max and how this process evolves? What do you think is the most likely timeline for when this plane gets back in the air?
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