Quarterly Trends Report

Q1 2022: the future of energy

  • Public Equity
  • Energy
  • Europe

Global energy prices spiked in 2021 as the COVID-19 bounce-back coincided with a squeeze on energy supplies. And with Russia the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, the conflict in Ukraine is sending supply chains into further disarray. Concerns about future gas flows, particularly if sanctions on imports to Europe are imposed, are intensifying against the backdrop of an extremely volatile and dynamic oil and gas market.

“I think folks are going to try to get as much LNG on the market and have it traded and sold,” a former VP at Tellurian Inc told Forum. Although Europe has abundant storage capacity, 40% of its gas comes from Russia, so whether there is enough LNG to deliver energy security is the bigger question, the expert said. A sanction on Russian LNG entities would make it “very difficult” for Europe to import natural gas from Russia, they added. They described the US’ ban on Russian energy as “symbolic”, as although the US imports very little from Russia, the ban makes it more difficult for LNG projects to be financed. 

Even in the face of an energy crisis, Europe will be reluctant to take on long-term LNG contracts, we were told. “I think for Europe, at the end of the day, it’s still a question of the climate impacts.” In contrast, the specialist anticipates long-term import “entrants” in places such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Hong Kong and Thailand. Indeed, LNG is far from being pushed out of the energy picture completely and the specialist foresees the return of Floating Storage Regasification Units as a way of obtaining LNG without lengthy construction timelines.

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