- The specialist said tier 1 CAPEX will be cautious in 2023 due to a “slowdown” among cloud vendors. Tier 2 cloud vendors – mainly China-based players – are also seeing softer demand, they added.
- The specialist expects NAND and DRAM pricing to continue to decrease through 2022 as “people negotiating prices of DRAM and SSDs are already negotiating lower prices for the following quarter”.
- Server growth is likely to be approximately 5-6% in 2022, we heard. Out of 100% of servers, the specialist said 60% is general all-purpose compute, 5% high performance, 5% training and inference, and 30% storage.
“We are certainly seeing some slowdown more in the big Chinese players, so I think probably 2023 is where you’ll potentially see some sort of digestion cycle within the US cloud guys and you can see a little bit of a softer demand.”
- Over the next five years, the specialist expects the current ratio of 5% used in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) for training and inference to change. According to the specialist, ML/AI servers will be closer to 10-12%, and high performance computing will be closer to 7-8%.
- Meanwhile, the specialist told us over the next five years the ratio of custom silicon could potentially increase to 20% for ARM CPUs, 40% for Intel and 40% for AMD – up from 2-3% ARM today.
For more human insights on data centre, hyperscaler chips and software procurement trends, click on the transcript below.
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