CASE STUDY

Timely insights on a fast-moving, global market situation

  • Multi Asset
  • Consumer
  • Global

The African swine fever epidemic was starting to gain a foothold in China in the latter part of 2018. There was minimal coverage of this complex situation in the mainstream media and limited analysis of its impact across the value chain. Third Bridge started to investigate the issue in October 2018, well before the media or analysts covered the crisis, to better understand what was happening on the ground and to determine the implications for companies in the supply chain.

Third Bridge's in-depth coverage of the swine fever situation helped us develop our thesis on alternative proteins in APAC, and we decided to take a position before pricing had spiked

Senior Analyst, Top 10 Fund

Research Insight

Third Bridge’s U.S. and China consumer teams analyzed the situation and mapped out the entire supply chain of the largest global pork producers. Our research included approximately 10 interviews across three continents with specialists at some of the largest global pork producers as well as local Chinese pork producers. The interviews uncovered many important insights into the unfolding situation, including what appeared to be a massive underreporting of the decline in pig numbers in China. The research helped clients understand the potential magnitude and subsequent impact of the virus on pig producers and processors in Asia, the U.S. and Europe and how it could affect public and private companies such as TSN, JBSS3, SEB, Simmons Foods, CWK, Muyuan Foods, Wen’s Poultry and Shuanghu.

Outcome

Third Bridge Forum’s quick movement on the situation, which included sourcing pan-regional specialists and asking probing, in-depth, contextual questions, provided timely, relevant and actionable insights for investors, all before the epidemic was covered in the mainstream media or sell-side research.

 

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