Interview Synopsis

Arrival – post-IPO business & market analysis

  • Multi Asset
  • Consumer
  • North America

Arrival Ltd, which recently listed on the NASDAQ via a US-based SPAC, develops electric vehicles (EVs) and is seeking to establish an alternative manufacturing approach to large-scale assembly lines by creating highly automated “microfactories”. Third Bridge Forum interviewed a formal divisional leader at the company to discuss its outlook post-IPO and the overall trajectory of the EV industry.

First on the agenda was the pros and cons of microfactories, described by the expert as places where robots are powered by AI. They explained why “we will not see a true mass production within the next maybe 5-10 years out of microfactories”, before answering what factors might make them more feasible longer-term.

Next on the agenda was Arrival’s “skateboard” platform designed to make different vehicle types. “I would say the skateboard chassis itself, from the engineering point of view, that’s a nice idea and this is how, for big OEMs, the entire electric world is going to be developing,” the expert said. “This is exactly where big OEMs are going to win the competition.” However, for start-ups, simply owning this chassis “doesn’t mean anything”, because actually producing the vehicle is “a completely different story”. 

The expert also discussed Arrival’s supply chain requirements and whether the company can deliver the expected production ramp-up. According to the expert, Arrival is “really far” from the point of having all the necessary contracts in place to produce EVs. “I believe this is one of the key elements every single investor or every single partner should take a look at very precisely.”

Another item on the agenda was Arrival’s revenue expectation of USD 14bn in 2024. The specialist is sceptical about this figure, having not seen any evidence of true mass production. “It will not be sufficient to build a couple of thousand vehicles. We need to make sure that when we sell the vehicles we are making profit, and I don’t see it is coming,” they said. 

Overall, the specialist sees more and more EVs coming to market over the next few years, driven by traditional OEMs. “Being honest with you, I don’t see a very big market for new OEMs, especially for those who aren’t yet delivering their product. The window of opportunity is very narrow.” 

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The information used in compiling this document has been obtained by Third Bridge from experts participating in Forum Interviews. Third Bridge does not warrant the accuracy of the information and has not independently verified it. It should not be regarded as a trade recommendation or form the basis of any investment decision.

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