First on the agenda was the pros and cons of microfactories, described by the expert as places where robots are powered by AI. They explained why “we will not see a true mass production within the next maybe 5-10 years out of microfactories”, before answering what factors might make them more feasible longer-term.
Next on the agenda was Arrival’s “skateboard” platform designed to make different vehicle types. “I would say the skateboard chassis itself, from the engineering point of view, that’s a nice idea and this is how, for big OEMs, the entire electric world is going to be developing,” the expert said. “This is exactly where big OEMs are going to win the competition.” However, for start-ups, simply owning this chassis “doesn’t mean anything”, because actually producing the vehicle is “a completely different story”.
The expert also discussed Arrival’s supply chain requirements and whether the company can deliver the expected production ramp-up. According to the expert, Arrival is “really far” from the point of having all the necessary contracts in place to produce EVs. “I believe this is one of the key elements every single investor or every single partner should take a look at very precisely.”
Another item on the agenda was Arrival’s revenue expectation of USD 14bn in 2024. The specialist is sceptical about this figure, having not seen any evidence of true mass production. “It will not be sufficient to build a couple of thousand vehicles. We need to make sure that when we sell the vehicles we are making profit, and I don’t see it is coming,” they said.
Overall, the specialist sees more and more EVs coming to market over the next few years, driven by traditional OEMs. “Being honest with you, I don’t see a very big market for new OEMs, especially for those who aren’t yet delivering their product. The window of opportunity is very narrow.”
To access all the human insights in Third Bridge Forum’s Arrival – post-IPO business & market analysis Interview, click here to access the full transcript.
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